Sunday, December 28, 2008

Important Quotes

- As Robert Schiller, the economist who specializes in bubbles points out, human beings tend to put too much emphasis (weight) on recent experiences.

- The trick is to survive long enough to wrestle that beast to the ground.

- All you have on Wall St is your reputation, if you lose that you are toast.

- Pulling off a few all-nighters - Wall Street Meat book

- "Late night at a bar" syndrome !

- If you don't have an equity in your house forget about refinancing it! Mortgage improvements will not solve the problem.

- Deflationary expectations : Delaying the purchase - Feeds on itself (Lack of demand lets the prices to fall faster which increases deflationary expectations) - Encourages you to wait until prices hit rock bottom.

- S&P500 $40 per share earnings x 15 (inflated P/E because of easy monetary policy) = 600 (Estimated index rate) 

- In crisis everything is correlated 1.0

- Rush-in and rush-out -> Creating bubbles

- 3 years of prolonged recession -> Depression

- It's possible that due to the economy, the number of H1B filings may be fewer than in recent years.

- Multiple filings by different employers 

- 20,000 cap-exempt individuals

- Doesn't require advanced degree requirement job description

- Beginning traders, especially those with scientific or engineering backgrounds, tend to underestimate the importance of psychology.

- Money management rules allows you to have more trades when you are on a roll, but slows you down when you are starting to lose money!

- Fundamentals drive long term trends. 

- John Maynard Keynes, who speaking about market irrationality, said, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain insolvent!"

- 10% unemployment is the key figure for the economy. Otherwise all of the models will fail: Credit cards, Mortgage industry, Auto loans and student loans






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